← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannover win | 45% | 39% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.41 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 27% | 32% | 3.63 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟥 | Simon Rhein · Nurnberg |
| 28' | 🟨 | Walace · Hannover |
| 33' | 🟨 | Marvin Bakalorz · Hannover |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nicolai Müller · Hannover |
| 68' | 🟨 | Adam Zreľák · Nurnberg |
| 72' | 🟨 | Matheus Pereira · Nurnberg |
| 77' | ⚽ | Nicolai Müller · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| coach days | 710.00 | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1446.69 | 1441.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.80 | -31.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.55 |
| league points | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | -1.29 | -1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |