← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 78% | 78% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 16% | 6.49 | value: +5% |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 8% | 6% | 12.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ (og) | Jeffrey Bruma · FC Bayern München |
| 25' | ⚽ | Ahmed Kutucu · FC Schalke 04 |
| 27' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 34' | 🟨 | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daniel Caligiuri · FC Schalke 04 |
| 57' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Bruma · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 223.00 | 618.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1978.74 | 1729.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.74 | -6.12 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| league points | 42.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.44 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.11 | 26.35 |
| state index | 1.61 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |