← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 42% | 47% | 2.30 | value: +8% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 31% | 27% | 3.18 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
| 54' | ⚽ | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
| 78' | 🟨 | Alexandru Maxim · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 977.00 | 643.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1609.96 | 1670.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.78 | 13.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 15.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.59 | 25.17 |
| state index | -0.69 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |