← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 52% | 49% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 24% | 26% | 4.11 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Virgil Misidjan · Nurnberg |
| 33' | 🟨 | Miloš Veljković · SV Werder Bremen |
| 63' | ⚽ | Johannes Eggestein · SV Werder Bremen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Adam Zreľák · Nurnberg |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ondřej Petrák · Nurnberg |
| 86' | ⚽ | Mikael Ishak · Nurnberg |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mikael Ishak · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1.00 | 489.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1439.42 | 1586.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.69 | 0.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | 1.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| league points | 11.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.60 |
| state index | -1.46 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |