← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 62% | 55% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 26% | 4.73 | value: +25% |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 18% | 18% | 5.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 32.00 | 216.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 3.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1756.66 | 2001.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.93 | 31.09 |
| eye test v1 | 1.73 | 1.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| league points | 27.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 64.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 2.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | 1.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 26.54 |
| state index | 1.06 | 2.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |