← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Fri, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Schlager, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 57% | 57% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.01 | fair |
| Hannover win | 19% | 22% | 5.23 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Pirmin Schwegler · Hannover |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jonathas · Hannover |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Marcel Halstenberg · RB Leipzig |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Konaté · RB Leipzig |
| 64' | ⚽ | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 75' | 🟨 | Konrad Laimer · RB Leipzig |
| 85' | ⚽ | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 19 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| coach days | 702.00 | 215.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1560.75 | 1773.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.55 | 17.19 |
| eye test v1 | -1.10 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| league points | 11.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.27 | 24.13 |
| state index | -0.90 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |