← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 39% | 41% | 2.50 | value: +4% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 35% | 31% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 482.00 | 209.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1585.92 | 1674.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.97 | 12.76 |
| eye test v1 | 1.59 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| league points | 25.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.76 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |