← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 55% | 64% | 1.78 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.87 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 20% | 14% | 4.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 786.00 | 969.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1677.16 | 1504.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.31 | -24.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| league points | 36.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 22.99 | — |
| state index | 0.99 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |