← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 51% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.43 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 21% | 26% | 4.63 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniel Brosinski · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jean-Philippe Mateta · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 43' | ⚽ | Georg Margreitter · Nurnberg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jean-Philippe Gbamin · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 52' | 🟨 | Fabian Bredlow · Nurnberg |
| 73' | ⚽ | Robin Quaison · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| coach days | 635.00 | 696.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1554.48 | 1444.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.31 | -47.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.57 |
| league points | 24.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.80 |
| state index | 0.06 | -1.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |