← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Fri, Jan 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 37% | 40% | 2.65 | value: +7% |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 33% | 32% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Karim Rekik · Hertha |
| 17' | ⚽ | Yevhen Konoplyanka · FC Schalke 04 |
| 39' | ⚽ | Marko Grujić · Hertha |
| 41' | 🟨 | Davie Selke · Hertha |
| 41' | 🟨 | Sebastian Rudy · FC Schalke 04 |
| 44' | ⚽ | Mark Uth · FC Schalke 04 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 1454.00 | 603.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1686.16 | 1744.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.42 | 0.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.78 |
| league points | 27.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.38 | 26.70 |
| state index | 0.45 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |