← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 47% | 46% | 2.08 | fair |
| Hannover win | 27% | 29% | 3.55 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Milot Rashica · SV Werder Bremen |
| 56' | 🟨 | Oliver Sorg · Hannover |
| 67' | 🟨 | Nicolai Müller · Hannover |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ludwig Augustinsson · SV Werder Bremen |
| 82' | 🟨 | Kevin Akpoguma · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 23 |
| 1 | On target | 13 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 689.00 | 475.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1572.83 | 1689.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.08 | -7.64 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 11.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 28.00 | 28.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.55 | 26.17 |
| state index | -0.58 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |