← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 36% | 42% | 2.70 | value: +14% |
| Wolfsburg win | 35% | 27% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Josuha Guilavogui · Wolfsburg |
| 39' | 🟨 | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 41' | ⚽ | William · Wolfsburg |
| 49' | ⚽ | Rani Khedira · FC Augsburg |
| 51' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 56' | 🟨 | Rani Khedira · FC Augsburg |
| 56' | 🟨 | Daniel Ginczek · Wolfsburg |
| 58' | ⚽ | Sergio Córdova · FC Augsburg |
| 88' | 🟨 | William · Wolfsburg |
| 89' | ⚽ | Yannick Gerhardt · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 935.00 | 325.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1640.00 | 1681.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.67 | 56.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 69.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 15.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.47 | 26.05 |
| state index | -0.28 | 0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |