← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 43% | 45% | 2.29 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.28 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 28% | 26% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 82.00 | 569.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1643.90 | 1723.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.47 | -10.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.74 |
| league points | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.67 | 26.10 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |