← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 38% | 37% | 2.59 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 33% | 33% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Manuel Gulde · SC Freiburg |
| 34' | 🟨 | Robin Koch · SC Freiburg |
| 40' | 🟨 | Manuel Gulde · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Federico Palacios · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matheus Pereira · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lukas Kübler · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 661.00 | 2578.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 1.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1468.15 | 1514.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.09 | 1.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| league points | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.32 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | -1.38 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |