← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannover win | 39% | 32% | 2.53 | fair |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 33% | 40% | 2.95 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Adam Bodzek · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 60' | 🟨 | Felipe · Hannover |
| 73' | 🟨 | Walace · Hannover |
| 76' | 🟨 | Kaan Ayhan · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 88' | 🟨 | Matthias Zimmermann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | ⚽ | Oliver Fink · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 661.00 | 1026.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1585.27 | 1558.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.07 | 28.52 |
| eye test v1 | -1.08 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| league points | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 33.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | -1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.57 | 27.34 |
| state index | -0.73 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -2.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |