← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Wed, Dec 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 54% | 53% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.93 | fair |
| Hannover win | 21% | 22% | 4.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Luca Waldschmidt · SC Freiburg |
| 14' | ⚽ | Felipe · Hannover |
| 42' | 🟨 | Felipe · Hannover |
| 81' | 🟨 | Pirmin Schwegler · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| coach days | 2575.00 | 658.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| elo | 1631.03 | 1582.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.53 | -13.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 48.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -14.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.66 | 26.15 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |