← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Tue, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 60% | 56% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.95 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 16% | 18% | 6.11 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Josuha Guilavogui · Wolfsburg |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jérôme Roussillon · Wolfsburg |
| 44' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 50' | 🟨 | Nicolás González · VfB Stuttgart |
| 80' | 🟨 | Antonis Aidonis · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 320.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1558.13 | 1554.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.97 | 13.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.00 | 49.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| league points | 22.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.01 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |