← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Tue, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 43% | 45% | 2.28 | value: +4% |
| FC Augsburg win | 29% | 29% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Martin Hinteregger · FC Augsburg |
| 28' | ⚽ | Mathew Leckie · Hertha |
| 31' | ⚽ | Ondrej Duda · Hertha |
| 39' | ⚽ | Ja-Cheol Koo · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Valentino Lazaro · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 1416.00 | 930.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1687.72 | 1636.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.28 | -31.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 23.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 27.20 | 27.57 |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |