← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 79% | 81% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 12% | 7.26 | fair |
| Hannover win | 8% | 7% | 12.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Joshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München |
| 13' | 🟨 | Felipe · Hannover |
| 29' | ⚽ | David Alaba · FC Bayern München |
| 53' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München |
| 62' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 3 | Shots | 32 |
| 0 | On target | 14 |
| 0 | Corners | 14 |
| 9 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 654.00 | 167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 8.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 1.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 10.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1587.30 | 1969.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.94 | -22.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.41 |
| league points | 10.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 67.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | 2.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 28.24 |
| state index | -0.43 | 1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | 1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |