← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 36% | 44% | 2.69 | value: +19% |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 35% | 29% | 2.77 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 28' | 🟨 | Steven Skrzybski · FC Schalke 04 |
| 29' | 🟨 | Daniel Baier · FC Augsburg |
| 52' | ⚽ | Daniel Caligiuri · FC Schalke 04 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Rani Khedira · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 927.00 | 562.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1635.74 | 1736.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.18 | -4.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| league points | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.72 | 26.18 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |