← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 55% | 65% | 1.76 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 24% | 18% | 4.01 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 21% | 16% | 4.73 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | 🟨 | Leon Bailey · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg |
| 75' | ⚽ | Lucas Alario · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Richter · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 647.00 | 920.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1712.68 | 1642.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.53 | -20.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| league points | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.20 | 27.62 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.94 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |