← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 89% | 88% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 8% | 12.59 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 3% | 3% | 32.84 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 27' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 56' | ⚽ | Franck Ribéry · FC Bayern München |
| 66' | 🟨 | David Alaba · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| coach days | 160.00 | 647.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1849.29 | 1492.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.64 | -19.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| league points | 24.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.40 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.11 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.38 | — |
| state index | 0.86 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |