← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 48% | 53% | 2.03 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.62 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 25% | 20% | 3.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | John Brooks · Wolfsburg |
| 11' | 🟨 | Gelson Fernandes · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 28' | 🟨 | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 31' | ⚽ | Admir Mehmedi · Wolfsburg |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pavao Pervan · Wolfsburg |
| 55' | 🟨 | Kevin Trapp · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 68' | ⚽ | Daniel Ginczek · Wolfsburg |
| 82' | 🟨 | Marco Russ · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jérôme Roussillon · Wolfsburg |
| 87' | ⚽ | Luka Jović · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 89' | 🟨 | Elvis Rexhbeçaj · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | William · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yannick Gerhardt · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 154.00 | 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1688.77 | 1524.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 67.46 | 12.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.66 |
| league points | 23.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.76 | — |
| state index | 1.62 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |