← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 36% | 39% | 2.71 | value: +7% |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 35% | 35% | 2.76 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 61.00 | 913.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.40 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1647.10 | 1650.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.66 | -10.86 |
| eye test v1 | -1.11 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| league points | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.32 | 27.61 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |