← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 38% | 36% | 2.54 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 34% | 37% | 2.87 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 15 |
| 10 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 3 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 906.00 | 146.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 3.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1549.99 | 1661.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.54 | 48.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.76 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.76 |
| state index | -0.08 | 1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |