← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Fri, Nov 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Schroder, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 63% | 70% | 1.53 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.69 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 16% | 12% | 6.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.09 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 632.00 | 53.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 3.61 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1710.72 | 1657.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.31 | -43.50 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | -0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| league points | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.42 | 26.61 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |