← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 39% | 46% | 2.51 | value: +15% |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 32% | 25% | 3.04 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Nabil Bentaleb · FC Schalke 04 |
| 61' | ⚽ | Luka Jović · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 73' | 🟨 | Salif Sané · FC Schalke 04 |
| 73' | ⚽ | Luka Jović · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 80' | ⚽ | Sébastien Haller · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 133.00 | 528.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1752.74 | 1748.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.30 | 6.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.68 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| league points | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.33 | 25.38 |
| state index | 1.41 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |