← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Schroder, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 62% | 62% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.83 | value: +7% |
| FC Augsburg win | 18% | 16% | 5.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg |
| 65' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 69' | ⚽ | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Håvard Nordtveit · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 83' | ⚽ | Reiss Nelson · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 22 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 1013.00 | 892.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1790.10 | 1668.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.62 | 16.75 |
| eye test v1 | 1.34 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.89 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| league points | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | -1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.06 | 27.78 |
| state index | 1.14 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |