← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 87% | 82% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 14% | 9.92 | value: +41% |
| SC Freiburg win | 4% | 4% | 26.41 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 79' | 🟨 | Rafinha · FC Bayern München |
| 79' | 🟨 | Alexander Schwolow · SC Freiburg |
| 80' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München |
| 89' | ⚽ | Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 14 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 125.00 | 2529.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1992.07 | 1640.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -57.14 | 23.35 |
| eye test v1 | 1.22 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.68 |
| league points | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.11 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.93 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 26.23 |
| state index | 0.90 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.00 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |