← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 59% | 60% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 17% | 4.12 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 17% | 23% | 5.70 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
| 15' | 🟨 | Ja-Cheol Koo · FC Augsburg |
| 33' | 🟨 | Tim Leibold · Nurnberg |
| 46' | 🟨 | Alexander Fuchs · Nurnberg |
| 54' | ⚽ | Alexander Fuchs · Nurnberg |
| 59' | ⚽ | Jonathan Schmid · FC Augsburg |
| 75' | 🟨 | Georg Margreitter · Nurnberg |
| 78' | 🟨 | Caiuby · FC Augsburg |
| 88' | ⚽ | Lukas Mühl · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | André Hahn · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 885.00 | 612.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1557.99 | 1512.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.51 | -17.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| league points | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 36.00 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.59 | -1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |