← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 79% | 76% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 13% | 7.17 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 7% | 11% | 12.90 | value: +41% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 21 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 544.00 | 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 3.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1633.23 | 1988.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.15 | -53.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 1.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| league points | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 66.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | 1.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 23.94 | 27.06 |
| state index | -0.14 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |