← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 73% | 67% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 19% | 5.77 | value: +10% |
| Wolfsburg win | 10% | 14% | 9.91 | value: +39% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 11 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 261.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 4.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1629.20 | 1984.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.02 | -55.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| league points | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 70.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | 2.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.32 | 27.56 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 1.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |