← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 42% | 40% | 2.35 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 33% | 34% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Stefan Ilsanker · RB Leipzig |
| 45' | 🟨 | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Konaté · RB Leipzig |
| 66' | 🟨 | Caiuby · FC Augsburg |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ja-Cheol Koo · FC Augsburg |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marcel Halstenberg · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcel Sabitzer · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 0 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 20 | Fouls | 24 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 871.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1661.39 | 1763.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.87 | 45.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | 1.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| league points | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.06 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 27.28 | 24.93 |
| state index | 0.32 | 1.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.59 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |