← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 83% | 71% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 18% | 8.41 | value: +54% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 6% | 10% | 17.01 | value: +77% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 97.00 | 674.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 9.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.47 |
| elo | 2015.12 | 1730.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.98 | 4.62 |
| eye test v1 | 1.31 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| league points | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.30 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.23 | 26.34 |
| state index | 1.47 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.31 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |