← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 51% | 53% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.77 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 23% | 20% | 4.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Caiuby · FC Augsburg |
| 34' | ⚽ | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
| 41' | 🟨 | Nicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg |
| 49' | ⚽ (og) | Jonathan Schmid · SC Freiburg |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
| 83' | ⚽ | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 13 |
| 10 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 851.00 | 2495.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1652.13 | 1629.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.33 | 12.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.62 |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 25.84 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.48 | -1.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |