← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 42% | 45% | 2.35 | value: +6% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 31% | 27% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 240.00 | 667.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1520.17 | 1613.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.79 | 20.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.50 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| league points | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 22.99 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |