← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 45% | 38% | 2.18 | fair |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 28% | 25% | 3.48 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 36% | 3.57 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Hanno Behrens · Nurnberg |
| 32' | 🟨 | Alfredo Morales · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 64' | ⚽ | Mikael Ishak · Nurnberg |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jean Zimmer · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 78' | ⚽ | Federico Palacios · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 577.00 | 942.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1520.86 | 1507.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.64 | 2.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 68.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.78 |
| league points | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -1.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |