← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Fri, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 77% | 76% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 17% | 6.47 | value: +9% |
| Hertha win | 8% | 7% | 12.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 40' | 🟨 | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 44' | ⚽ | Ondrej Duda · Hertha |
| 48' | 🟨 | Joshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ondrej Duda · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Javairô Dilrosun · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 25 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 14 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 1335.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 7.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 1.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1684.90 | 2040.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.28 | 11.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| league points | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 69.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | 2.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 25.34 | 26.83 |
| state index | 0.68 | 2.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 1.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |