← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Wed, Sep 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 38% | 43% | 2.54 | value: +9% |
| Wolfsburg win | 33% | 28% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | 🟨 | Admir Mehmedi · Wolfsburg |
| 71' | 🟨 | Alexandru Maxim · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ignacio Camacho · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 513.00 | 237.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1536.31 | 1517.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.30 | 28.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 45.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| league points | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |