← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Tue, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 48% | 53% | 2.03 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.62 | fair |
| Hertha win | 25% | 21% | 3.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Martin Harnik · SV Werder Bremen |
| 16' | 🟨 | Valentino Lazaro · Hertha |
| 21' | 🟨 | Javairô Dilrosun · Hertha |
| 45' | ⚽ | Miloš Veljković · SV Werder Bremen |
| 53' | ⚽ | Javairô Dilrosun · Hertha |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nuri Şahin · SV Werder Bremen |
| 65' | 🟨 | Karim Rekik · Hertha |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Max Kruse · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| coach days | 359.00 | 1332.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1717.79 | 1696.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.00 | 25.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.13 | 26.41 |
| state index | 0.77 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |