← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 52% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.49 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 20% | 19% | 4.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Roland Sallai · SC Freiburg |
| 21' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 26' | 🟨 | Roland Sallai · SC Freiburg |
| 50' | ⚽ | Mike Frantz · SC Freiburg |
| 61' | ⚽ | Admir Mehmedi · Wolfsburg |
| 75' | 🟨 | Nicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florian Niederlechner · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 233.00 | 2487.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1537.92 | 1478.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.89 | -12.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.90 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| league points | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |