← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 71% | 55% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 22% | 5.31 | value: +15% |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 11% | 23% | 8.99 | value: +110% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | James Rodríguez · FC Bayern München |
| 32' | 🟨 | Naldo · FC Schalke 04 |
| 42' | 🟨 | Daniel Caligiuri · FC Schalke 04 |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sandro Wagner · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| 0.40 |
| coach days | 478.00 | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.74 |
| elo | 1760.45 | 2042.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.06 | -15.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 1.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| league points | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 71.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 11.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | 2.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 27.30 | 28.19 |
| state index | 0.40 | 1.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | 1.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |