← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 39% | 31% | 2.52 | fair |
| Hannover win | 33% | 23% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 46% | 3.47 | value: +59% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Virgil Misidjan · Nurnberg |
| 17' | 🟨 | Pirmin Schwegler · Hannover |
| 29' | 🟥 | Miiko Albornoz · Hannover |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ondřej Petrák · Nurnberg |
| 66' | 🟨 | Eduard Löwen · Nurnberg |
| 76' | ⚽ (og) | Waldemar Anton · Nurnberg |
| 77' | ⚽ | Törles Knöll · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 570.00 | 570.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1517.41 | 1525.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.42 | 10.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.73 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| league points | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |