← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Schlager, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 60% | 58% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.30 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 17% | 20% | 5.71 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Davy Klaassen · SV Werder Bremen |
| 26' | ⚽ | Maximilian Eggestein · SV Werder Bremen |
| 65' | 🟨 | Philipp Bargfrede · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Virgil Misidjan · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| coach days | 350.00 | 564.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 4.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1595.92 | 1513.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.56 | 3.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |