← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 45% | 49% | 2.18 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.28 | fair |
| Hertha win | 26% | 21% | 3.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Marko Grujić · Hertha |
| 61' | ⚽ | Javairô Dilrosun · Hertha |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Yunus Malli · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ignacio Camacho · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lukas Klünter · Hertha |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ondrej Duda · Hertha |
| 90' | ⚽ | Admir Mehmedi · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 226.00 | 1322.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1538.71 | 1571.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.99 | -5.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.81 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.59 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |