← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 37% | 47% | 2.66 | value: +24% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 35% | 29% | 2.76 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 54' | 🟨 | Ridle Baku · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Rani Khedira · FC Augsburg |
| 82' | ⚽ | Dong-Won Ji · FC Augsburg |
| 87' | ⚽ | Anthony Ujah · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alexandru Maxim · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 502.00 | 836.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1534.13 | 1546.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.76 | -10.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |