← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 83% | 83% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 11% | 8.80 | fair |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 6% | 6% | 15.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ (pen) | Wendell · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 10' | ⚽ | Corentin Tolisso · FC Bayern München |
| 19' | ⚽ | Arjen Robben · FC Bayern München |
| 55' | 🟨 | Wendell · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 80' | 🟥 | Karim Bellarabi · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 89' | ⚽ | James Rodríguez · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 4 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 76.00 | 563.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| elo | 2039.61 | 1721.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.31 | -45.31 |
| eye test v1 | 1.44 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.57 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.45 | 1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.95 | 25.23 |
| state index | 1.77 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.46 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |