← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 76% | 70% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 18% | 6.06 | value: +7% |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 8% | 13% | 11.83 | value: +48% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München |
| 62' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 76' | ⚽ | Thomas Müller · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 4 | Shots | 20 |
| 0 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 12 |
| 3 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.58 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Arena |
| 0.40 |
| coach days | 243.00 | 62.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1716.75 | 2033.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 67.41 | -19.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | 1.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.79 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 69.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.60 | 2.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 27.05 | 27.68 |
| state index | 1.15 | 1.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | 1.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |