← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 36% | 35% | 2.72 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 35% | 37% | 2.77 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Jean-Philippe Mateta · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 33' | 🟨 | Moussa Niakhaté · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 48' | ⚽ | Mikael Ishak · Nurnberg |
| 50' | 🟨 | Pierre Kunde · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ondřej Petrák · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hanno Behrens · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 549.00 | 488.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.55 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1514.72 | 1532.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.24 | 27.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |