← Bundesliga 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sven Jablonski, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 58% | 67% | 1.67 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.90 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 17% | 13% | 5.86 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Ignacio Camacho · Wolfsburg |
| 24' | ⚽ | Leon Bailey · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 36' | ⚽ (og) | Ramazan Özcan · Wolfsburg |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jérôme Roussillon · Wolfsburg |
| 55' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · Wolfsburg |
| 60' | ⚽ | Renato Steffen · Wolfsburg |
| 72' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Dragović · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 73' | 🟨 | Isaac Thelin · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mitchell Weiser · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Ginczek · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.59 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 549.00 | 212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1626.40 | 1516.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.01 | -13.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.99 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 45.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.26 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 23.23 | — |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |